MAGA followers on social media are saying President Biden, in 2020, received substantially more votes than Kamala Harris in 2024 because the Democrats cheated by allowing undocumented citizens to vote. That has been – and continues to be – proven false.
Where’s the evidence?
Former President Donald Trump defeated Vice President Kamala Harris 312 to 226 in the Electoral College and 1.47 percent in the popular vote despite failing to crack 50 percent. Hence, more Americans voted against him than for him.
Overall, 229,766 votes in the Blue Wall states (PA, WI, and MI) represented the difference between winning and losing for Harris, who received about 6.1 million fewer votes than Joe Biden four years prior.
Total votes: 2020 saw about 158.4 million votes cast, while 2024 had 156.3 million – a difference of about 2.1 million.
The significant vote difference in vote totals between Joe Biden in 2020 and Kamala Harris in 2024 can be attributed to several key factors.
Decreased Democrat / Left-Leaning Turnout
In 2024, there was a massive dropoff in Democratic turnout compared to 2020. This decline was particularly noticeable in traditionally liberal areas, including urban centers and suburban regions. For example, in Wayne County, Michigan (which includes Detroit), Harris received 61,000 fewer votes than Biden, a decline of about 10%. Moreover, Cook County, Illinois (which includes Chicago) saw a 20% decrease in turnout.
In the grand scheme of things, it’s clear that Harris garnered fewer votes than Biden in 45 out of 50 states. This trend is consistent across every single county in the nation, highlighting a significant difference in voter support between the two.
One hypothesis: The 2020 election, conducted during the unprecedented challenges of the COVID pandemic, presented a remarkable opportunity to boost voter participation. States took significant steps to make voting both very accessible and safe, ensuring that every citizen could exercise their democratic right with ease and confidence. The unique circumstances of the pandemic shutdowns provided voters with extra time, making it easier to participate in the electoral process. Coupled with heightened concerns about the pandemic and a powerful motivation to remove then-President Donald Trump from office, these factors led to an extraordinary level of voter engagement in 2020. This unprecedented involvement underscores how critical these issues were for many Americans, highlighting the significant impact they had on shaping voter turnout.
In 2024, a substantial number of disenchanted left-leaning voters chose to abstain from participating in the election. Their decision was influenced by a lack of preference for former President Trump and a diminished enthusiasm for Vice President Harris due to her association with the current administration.
Economic Concerns
Many voters, especially in key demographic groups such as minorities and working-class individuals, turned away from the Democrats due to economic hardships. The inflationary period following COVID-19 led to economic pain for many voters, which was directed at the Biden administration and, by extension, Harris.
Inherited Disapproval
As vice president to Joe Biden, Harris inherited the public’s disapproval of his performance, particularly on core issues such as inflation and immigration. This made her campaign an uphill battle from the start.
Enthusiasm Gap
While Harris managed to generate more enthusiasm among the Democratic base than Biden, she struggled to articulate how her administration would differ from his. This made it challenging for her to establish a unique identity separate from the Biden administration. Also, Harris had less time to establish herself as a candidate distinct from Biden. The late decision by Biden to step down from the race deprived Harris of the opportunity to sharpen her arguments in a primary fight and limited her time to introduce herself to voters.
Trump’s Expanded Coalition
Donald Trump’s campaign successfully built on Republicans’ growing strength among white working-class voters to create a multi-ethnic working-class coalition. He made significant gains among Latino and African American voters, especially men, which contributed to Harris’s lower vote total.
In Conclusion
The total vote count for 2024 was lower than the record-breaking turnout of 2020, which partially explains the reduced support for Harris. The aforementioned unprecedented circumstances of the 2020 election, including the COVID-19 pandemic, likely contributed to the exceptionally high turnout that year.
The 2020 presidential election witnessed the highest voter turnout of the 21st century, with 66.8 percent of citizens participating in the electoral process. Similarly, the 2024 election also experienced a significant level of civic engagement, recording a voter turnout rate of 63.9 percent. Unfortunately for Democrats, the high majority of those non-voters in 2024 supported Biden in 2020 and would have likely supported Harris if energized enough to vote.
In conclusion, a combination of decreased Democratic enthusiasm, economic concerns, campaign challenges, and Trump’s expanded coalition contributed to the significant gap between Biden’s 2020 vote total and Harris’s 2024 performance.