Economic suicide and delusional: The cost of deporting 11 million people in the short term



President-elect Donald Trump has pledged to carry out the largest mass deportation operation in American history, targeting millions of undocumented immigrants living in the United States. However, implementing such a sweeping deportation plan faces significant legal, logistical, and economic challenges.

For now, let’s set aside all of the legal and logistical challenges. And while mass deportations could have significant economic consequences, potentially shrinking the U.S. GDP (Gross Domestic Product) by 4.2% and disrupting various industries, particularly agriculture and construction, let’s set that aside too. Those issues are for another article.

For the purposes of simplicity, let’s address one question: How much will it cost to deport 11 million undocumented immigrants?

Example:
Julio is from Honduras and living illegally in Oakland. What will it cost to:

1) verify he’s an undocumented citizen and put him on a list

2) find the city/town he resides

3) track down his address after learning his general vicinity

4) physically capture and detain him

5) feed him for 30 days while he’s in detention

6) provide a bed and toiletries for him for 30 days while he’s in detention

7) pay for the necessary legal processing and deportation court fees

8) provide him with legal representation

9) verify with the Honduran government that he is, in fact, one of theirs

10) coordinate an appropriate dropoff time and location with the Honduran government

11) physically transport him from Oakland to Honduras

Multiply the 11 steps above by 11 million and we’ll get some idea of how much Trump’s undertaking will cost.

Let’s understand reality, the current immigration system lacks the capacity – and money – to process and deport millions of people simultaneously.

Folks with experience in and knowledge of the deportation process suggest that a one-time operation to deport all undocumented immigrants could cost at least $315 billion, requiring substantial funding and resources.

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And consider this: the $315 billion figure doesn’t even account for the subsequent estimated 4.2% decrease in our annual GDP, which translates to a staggering reduction of over $100 billion in production output.

To put this in perspective, the cost, alone, (not including GDP repercussions) would be nearly twice the annual budget of the National Institutes of Health, four times NASA’s budget, and nearly three times federal spending on child nutrition.

Even deporting just one million immigrants per year would cost an estimated $88 billion annually, according to professionals in the deportation arena. And over a decade, the total cost could reach $967.9 billion.

Is it really worth all that to deport a 62-year-old grandmother with no criminal record who works for $14/hr as a janitor?

… But as long as we can send grandma back home, right?

And by the way, deported immigrants are allowed to take all the money they’ve earned in the U.S. with them, so the U.S. can’t seize their assets.

Given the enormous direct costs, alone, it is clear that the United States cannot afford to deport 11 million undocumented immigrants at once, in a year, or during Trump’s four-year term. The financial burden and economic disruption would be catastrophic, likely outweighing any perceived benefits of such a mass deportation program.

If Trump & Co. are truly committed to enhancing national security and addressing the issue of undocumented citizens, it would be more effective for them to concentrate on individuals with criminal records or those who have previously been deported.

This targeted approach not only prioritizes public safety but also ensures that resources are used efficiently, making a significant impact where it’s most needed.

And if the American people absolutely want to deport grandma, a 10, 15, or 20-year deportation plan should be created. Gradually expand deportation efforts over time and aim for around 1-2 million deportations annually.

While Trump has promised swift and comprehensive action, the reality of mass deportations WILL BE more costly, complex, and time-consuming than his campaign rhetoric suggests.

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