President-elect Donald Trump has made lowering grocery prices a key focus of his campaign and upcoming second term. However, experts suggest that achieving this goal may be more challenging than initially presented.
Grocery prices have risen significantly in recent years, with food costs increasing by 25% from 2019 to 2023. This surge in prices has been a major concern for American voters, with 70% expressing high levels of concern about food and grocery costs.
During his campaign, Trump vowed to bring down grocery prices quickly. He proposed implementing tariffs on imported goods, including a 10% tariff on all imports and a 60% tariff on Chinese products, boosting domestic energy production to lower transportation costs, improving supply chains, and increasing domestic agricultural production.
But despite Trump’s assurances, economists and experts have raised concerns about the feasibility and potential consequences of his proposed policies.
Why?
Many economists warn that tariffs could actually increase food prices by raising the cost of imported goods and agricultural inputs. Second, Trump’s plans for mass deportation of undocumented workers could disrupt the food supply chain and potentially increase prices even more. Now, combine those elements with the fact that bringing down prices that have already increased is generally difficult without causing economic slowdowns, and it isn’t difficult to why grocery prices are unlikely to drop under Trump.
Experts note that presidents have limited direct control over grocery prices, which are influenced by various complex factors. Therefore, it’s important to understand that once his agenda is in play, Trump will have minimal ability to reduce grocery prices.
In a recent interview with Time magazine, Trump acknowledged the difficulty of lowering grocery prices, stating, “It’s hard to bring things down once they’re up. You know, it’s very hard.”
This statement contrasts with his earlier campaign promises of quick price reductions.
While Trump’s policies aim to reduce grocery costs, their implementation could have mixed effects. Tariffs might protect some domestic producers but could still raise prices for consumers. And while energy policies could potentially lower transportation costs, their impact on overall food prices may be limited. Lastly, immigration policies could affect agricultural labor supply, potentially inncreasing production costs.
What are experts saying?
Experts predict that Trump’s tariffs could lead to grocery price increases ranging from 3% to a whopping 25%, increasing a typical family’s annual grocery budget by almost $200 in 2025, or 3.3%.
While President-elect Trump has made lowering grocery prices a priority for his second term, the path to achieving this goal appears complex and uncertain. The effectiveness of his proposed strategies remains a subject of debate among economists and industry experts.
It seems increasingly likely that we’ll be fortunate if grocery prices remain the same a year from now.