No, MAGA: Black violent crime has dropped SIGNIFICANTLY since the 1970s, 80s, and 90s



As usual, MAGA likes to create narratives and conspiracy theories based on hearsay and propaganda instead of concrete data.

MAGA supporters and some Republican politicians have promoted the narrative that violent crime among Black Americans is drastically increasing, despite evidence to the contrary. Current crime statistics do not support this belief, which seems to stem from a misinterpretation of data, reliance on racial stereotypes, and underlying racism.

Additionally, it reflects a certain level of denial regarding the significant progress made by American Blacks. Recognizing these facts and challenging such misconceptions is crucial for a more accurate understanding.

The homicide rate for Black men in 1970 was 78 per 100,000 people. This rate increased further during the 1980s and early 1990s, largely due to factors such as the crack cocaine epidemic and associated gang violence. The peak of violent crime occurred in the early 1990s. In 1993, Black homicide victims reached an all-time high of 11,752.

However, from this peak, there was a dramatic decrease:

  • Between 1990 and 2000, the Black homicide victimization rate fell by 45%.
  • From 1990 to 2000, arrest rates of African Americans for violent crimes other than murder dropped by 53%.
  • The murder rate for Black males ages 14-17 plummeted from 253 per 100,000 in 1993 to 64 per 100,000 in 2000, a remarkable 75% decline.

The homicide arrest rate for Black adults fell by 65% from the 1980s to 2020, the largest decrease seen among racial groups.

The downward trend has largely continued beyond 2000:

From 2000 to 2019, the homicide rate for Black men declined from around 54 per 100,000 to about 35 per 100,000.

Using CDC data, the ratio of the murder rate between Blacks and non-Hispanic whites declined from 9.9 in 1990 to 8.3 in 2019.

However, it’s important to note that there was a spike in violent crime rates in 2021. In that year, the homicide rate for Black men rose back to 54 per 100,000, matching levels from the 1980s and 1990s. Nevertheless, in the same year, the homicide rate for Black men was still significantly down from a peak of 78 per 100,000 in 1970.

Since 2021, the Black homicide rate has, again, dropped. We don’t yet have the numbers from 2024 but early indications suggest the Black violent crime rate is back down to 2018 levels. The overall homicide rate in 2024 appears to have dropped 16 percent since 2023 while overall violent crime seems to have dipped 3.3 percent.

“Considering where we were just three or four years ago, we’re basically looking at 5,000 fewer murder victims than in 2020, 2021 and 2022 having occurred in 2024,” said Jeff Asher, a national crime analyst and co-founder of AH Datalytics, via Police1.

Non-firearm homicide victimization rates saw a significant decline in racial disparities, with the ratio between Black and non-Hispanic white Americans falling from 7.0 in 1990 to 3.3 in 2019

Several factors have been suggested to explain the decline in Black violent crime: Improved economic conditions in some urban areas, changes in drug markets and policing strategies, and ongoing socioeconomic efforts to reduce systemic inequalities.

Although Black violent crime rates remain well above the national average, it’s important to recognize that they are trending in a positive direction versus the 1970s, 80s, and 90s. This progress indicates that efforts to address and reduce these rates are making a difference, and with continued support and resources, we can further accelerate this encouraging trend.

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